Nepal's Maoists are on course to win three times more seats than the next largest party in elections to form an assembly that will write a new constitution. The Maoists have won 116 out of the 215 seats declared so far and they are poised to secure an absolute majority. They are performing well both in the race for directly elected seats to the new assembly as well as well as those seats allocated under a proportional system.
The toD verdict: A victory for Nepal's Maoist rebels may have set off alarm bells in Washington and New Delhi, but the former rebels are likely to focus on development, pursue pragmatic policies and avoid ruffling foreign feathers. With counting continuing after last week's election, the Maoists are certain to become Nepal's biggest party and the head of a new coalition government. The Maoists' biggest challenge will be to deliver on the change and development they have promised and that Nepal desperately needs, after decades of corruption and ill governance in one of the world's poorest countries. Like most parties in opposition in Nepal, the Maoists were not averse to a bit of anti-India rhetoric, but in office they cannot bring prosperity to Nepal without the support of India, its main trading partner and donor and the source of its fuel.
Indeed, in a victory speech, the Maoist leader Prachanda has already pledged to maintain good relations with all countries, including India and China. New Delhi may have been caught a little off-balance, but is already finding its diplomatic feet. Nor are the Maoists about to export their revolution. If there is a risk for New Delhi, it lies with its own Maoist insurgency, active in more than dozen states. But one thing was missing from Prachanda's victory speech after he won by a landslide in his Kathmandu constituency - an explicit renunciation of violence. It will make it difficult for Washington to remove the terrorist tag placed on Nepal's Maoists.
China: "Gold Medal" in executions Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.
Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here
The Chinese authorities put to death at least 470 people last year, but probably killed many more, human rights group Amnesty International has said. Amnesty said the hidden extent of executions in China, where figures are secret, might mean the Olympic host was behind the bulk of them worldwide. But China's foreign ministry defended the death penalty, saying China limited it to a small number of criminals. Indeed, it insisted that executions have declined in China earlier this year. Just five countries - China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the US - were responsible for 88% of known executions in the world.
Putin pushes Georgia region ties
Russia announced it will establish legal links with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, prompting the small Caucasus state to call an emergency meeting of top security officials. The step will frustrate Georgia's attempt to reconcile the regions back into the state whilst Georgia continues to accuse Moscow of creeping annexation of the rebel territories. The statement made no mention of Russia recognising the two regions' claims for independence from Georgia. It is doubtful whether Moscow will grant any real diplomatic recognition however as it is wary of fomenting separatism inside its own borders. Nonetheless, Moscow has warned it will respond to western states' recognition of Kosovo by stepping up its relations with the two regions.
Attacks against NGO'S on the rise: ANSO
Attacks on non-governmental organisations and aid workers in Afghanistan by anti-government forces, mainly Taliban insurgents, rose sharply in the first quarter of 2008, according to a report released by the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office (ANSO) on 15 April. Nic Lee, the ANSO director in Kabul, told the UN Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN): "[Non-government organisation] security incidents attributed to armed opposition groups have doubled from eight in the first quarter of 2007 to 16 in the same period this year [2008]." Sixteen of the 29 direct attacks on NGOs across the country that occurred between January and the end of March 2008 were initiated or executed by Taliban insurgents and other rebel fighters. The remaining 13 were attributed to criminals who attack NGOs mostly for financial gain. Conflict-related violence, which was once restricted to the restive southern parts of Afghanistan, is now spreading to other parts of the country. As a result, civilians and humanitarian workers have been extensively affected, aid agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross warned.
Indian army deploys more troops along LOC
The Indian army increased its troop deployment along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir following the threat of increased infiltration by militants from Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Lieutenant General Karwal said the deployment was due to heavy snowfall that had damaged the border fence line, therefore making it easier for militants to cross over. He also claimed 400 militants were waiting to 'sneak' across the LoC. This in spite of a three-pronged counter insurgency strategy the army deployed in 2003 designed to cut off the ability of Pakistan-based commanders of terrorist organisations to communicate with and pass instructions to militants operating in India.
Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.
Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here
