The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) have made a surprising U-turn, announcing a unilateral ceasefire, effective from midnight tonight, and calling for the resumption of peace talks with the Nigerian government.
In a statement signed by senior spokesman Jomo Gbomo, the MEND said: "We are respecting an appeal by the Niger Delta elders to give peace and dialogue another chance." The move comes just days after the group made an unprecedented attack on Royal Dutch Shell's Bonga oil facility, 75 miles offshore, forcing it to shut down its 225,000 barrels per day production.
The toD verdict: The MEND's announcement comes from a position of considerable strength. The attack on the Bonga facility showed a capacity for deep offshore attacks of which few thought them capable. Another attack on a Chevron pipeline on June 19 halted a further 120,000 barrels per day. In total, it is estimated that MEND attacks have reduced Nigeria's 2 million barrels per day production capacity by a quarter over the past two years, and directly contributed to soaring oil prices worldwide.
Appeals by local chieftains will have played a part in the decision to cease hostilities. The full-scale attack on the militants threatened by President Umaru Yar'Adua last week would have had devastating implications for many in the impoverished region.
But the MEND have always maintained that "no Ijaw elder has any influence on our group." Rather, this pre-emptive offer of peace puts the blame for any further escalation squarely on the government, and ensures the MEND maintain legitimacy among the local population, many of whom share their desire to see oil profits nationalised. The Niger Delta is Africa's largest oil producing region, but its residents have seen little of the revenue generated there. Most Nigerians survive on a couple of dollars a day.
With Chevron and Total hoping to start new offshore facilities this year, the time is right for the MEND to push their advantage. They are keen for the release of their leader Henry Okah, who many believe is being tried in secret to prevent him exposing the government corruption that surrounds the oil industry. Beyond such immediate goals, it is unlikely the MEND have any intention of ending a struggle that is largely going their way.
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