In March this year, the Estonian parliamentary elections witnessed the success of the liberal opposition Reform Party. Many observers thought this was the first step towards the Reform leader Kaja Kallas becoming prime minister - and forming a grand coalition with incumbent Prime Minister Jüri Ratas and his Centre Party.
But this scenario did not account for Ratas’ determination to hold on to his post. And the impressive electoral growth of the far-right Estonian National Conservative Party (EKRE) gave Ratas an alternative way out - in the form of a coalition between EKRE, Centre and the conservative Pro Patria party. By capitalising on social discontent and fear-mongering around the dangers of immigration and multiculturalism, EKRE emerged from the March elections as the third largest political force in Estonia - with 19 seats and 17.8% of the votes.
Although Ratas had given a firm commitment not to form a government with the far right during the election campaign, it turned out that the Centre leader was actually far more willing to compromise ideologically. The start of coalition talks between Centre and EKRE caught many domestic and international observers by surprise, receiving widespread criticism both within Ratas’ party and broader civil society.
