On 9 June, for the first time since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan will elect a present who is not Nursultan Nazarbayev.
Nazarbayev, who was Kazakhstan’s leader for 30 years, voluntarily stepped down in March, saying it was time for a new generation of leaders. The handover of power has been relatively smooth so far – the senate leader, Qasym-Jomart Tokayev, was appointed interim president in accordance with the constitution. In early April, Tokayev called for early elections, and is running as the ruling party candidate. A long-term moderate opposition figure, Amirzhan Kossanov, has been allowed to enter the race. From the outset, Kazakhstan’s game plan has been to present an exemplary model of transition – peaceful and orderly.
But the prospect of a genuine transition is an illusion. Given the short campaign period, restrictions on opposition activism and independent media, and the resources available to the leading party candidate, this election is unlikely to be different from past elections, which independent observers found to be neither free nor fair.
