The deaths of six Canadian soldiers and their translator in a roadside bomb attack in Kandahar province on 4 July 2007 will further fuel the controversy in Canada over the presence and role of the country's armed forces in Afghanistan. Two other attacks on the same day raised equally strong concerns: the killing of at least five Pakistani soldiers in a suicide-bomb attack on an army convoy in a border area of North Waziristan, and the death of four civilians in a bomb blast in the usually peaceful northwest region of Swat a few hours later.
It is possible that the North Waziristan and Swat incidents are closely linked to the crisis over the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad; perhaps even an immediate retaliation for the Pakistani army's robust attempt, begun on 3 July, to end the stand-off (see Irfan Husain, "Pakistan: sliding into anarchy", 26 April 2007). By 5 July, it appeared that Pakistan's army were gaining control of the compound (which also contains a madrasa where girls are taught), after chaotic scenes that resulted in the death of ten people and injuries to at least 100 more. The attempt to end the crisis and detain the mosque's two leading clerics, the brothers Abdul Aziz Ghazi and Abdur Rashid Ghazi, secured the former's arrest (after he attempted to escape) and a propaganda coup in that he called in a TV interview on those still inside the compound to surrender or leave.
The military assault reflects a harder political line by Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president; and this in turn could be because he is coming under greater pressure from Washington to be firmer in addressing the challenge of radical Islamists in the country, especially in districts bordering on Afghanistan such as North and South Waziristan.
Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England. He has been writing a weekly column on global security on openDemocracy since 26 September 2001
Afghanistan on edge
The pressure from the Bush administration stems largely from the further deterioration in the situation in Afghanistan (see "Afghanistan: low level, high impact", 14 June 2007). The United States is insistent that the failure of the Musharraf regime to maintain security in the border district is a huge advantage for the Taliban and other militias. Meanwhile, the Hamid Karzai administration in Kabul continues to lose popular support across Afghanistan; this is owed to endemic nepotism and corruption as well as to the civilian deaths inflicted by US air strikes attempting to counter the Taliban revival (see Haroun Mir, "Afghanistan is Moving Backwards", Asia Times, 2 July 2007).
One indication of the problem facing Nato's International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) forces has been the huge increase in the use of munitions by some of the Isaf units. In May 2007, the British ministry of defence was reported to have issued an urgent operational requirement (UOR) for an additional 100,000 L41A4 high-explosive 81 mm mortar rounds from the arms manufacturer BAe Systems. This is in addition to a new three-year contract for 330,000 rounds signed only one month earlier and indicates the sheer pressure that the British forces are under (see Andrew White "UK MoD addresses mortar use issues in Afghanistan and Iraq", Jane's International Defence Review, July 2007 [subscription only]) While some of the munitions (as well as new patrol vehicles ordered under a UOR in June) may be intended for use in Iraq, the drawdown of British forces there is now underway, and all the indications are that it is in Afghanistan that the British army is going to experience the real pressure.
For the United States, the difficulties in Iraq have largely obscured the substantial concerns over Afghanistan, but there is deep frustration stemming from a firm belief that the "safe-haven" status of Pakistan's border districts is a constant hindrance to a military solution. Whether the US and its Nato partners can prevail against the militias in Afghanistan is in any way open to question, but the view in Washington is that it is impossible without the possibility of attacking the militias in Pakistan.
In addition to his weekly openDemocracy column, Paul Rogers writes an international security monthly briefing for the Oxford Research Group; for details, click here.
Paul Rogers's latest book is Global Security and the War on Terror: Elite Power and the Illusion of Control (Routledge, July 2007). This is a collection of papers and essays written over the last twenty years, with two new essays on the current global predicamen
Pakistan at the centre
This is hugely controversial, in that previous US air strikes in Pakistan have resulted in a bitter anti-Musharraf reaction across much of the country. Nato intelligence sources insist that at least four areas in North and South Waziristan are currently major centres for militia logistics and training activities. As a result, there has been heavy pressure on Musharraf to allow "hot pursuit" across the border from Afghanistan, with firm indications that Musharraf is now willing to agree (see Syed Saleem Shahzad, "US to hunt the Taliban inside Pakistan", Asia Times, 2 July 2007).
This is highly significant and also relates to this week's action by the Pakistani army against the Lal Masjid, since there are reported to be direct connections between the mosque's senior clerics and the Pakistani Taliban. The Lal Masjid action and the reported willingness to allow US military action within Pakistan, taken together, mean that Musharraf has decided to take the major political risk and side much more directly with Washington over the war in Afghanistan.
The dangers are great, since direct US military action, with the inevitable civilian casualties, will be deeply unpopular in Pakistan and could potentially destabilise the Musharraf ruling order. It will also be of direct concern to the British government, since it could further radicalise elements of Britain's sizeable Pakistani community.
Much of the media attention in Britain and the United States in the past days has been on the continuing problems in Iraq, and the attempted attacks in London and Glasgow. But the security dynamic as it affects both countries over the next few months may be shaped far more by events in Pakistan.
