The US-Israeli war on Iran has reached an unexpected pause. An easing of tensions between Washington and Tehran now extends to Donald Trump changing his mind yet again and extending the informal ceasefire deadline. His motive is allegedly to allow the Iranian government more time to agree to a proposal that meets US requirements, but it is also an admission that Iran is in a strong bargaining position.
There are complications, though. One is that while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, US armed forces are blockading Iranian ports to stop commercial shipping. The aim is to put such pressure on Iran’s weakened economy that the leadership in Tehran will quickly accept US terms. That’s unlikely.
While a few days ago, Iranian sources were suggesting that they might loosen their control of the Strait of Hormuz, any progress in that direction has now been halted until the US maritime blockade is lifted. Only then might Iran participate in negotiations on a settlement.
