Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission. Martin Schulz/Flickr. Some rights reserved.Referendum campaigns matter more than election campaigns. Research has shown time and time again that people tend to change their minds during a referendum campaign, especially when the subject is an unfamiliar one, and the politicians line up in a non-traditional way. Voters then rely on campaign information to make sense of the referendum proposal, and the way political actors present the issue makes a difference.
This is typically the case in referendums on the European Union (EU), and even more so when the referendum question concerns EU treaties, which are considerably technical and long. Besides being unfamiliar with the EU’s unique terminology, European citizens lack direct interaction with EU institutions in their daily lives. In addition, these campaigns often pitch the parties in the middle against those that are at the extremes of the political spectrum. The far left and the far right come together in their fight against the proposal, forming alliances never seen in regular elections. Referendum campaigns thus have an important role in helping citizens make sense of the European treaty at hand. In the referendums on Maastricht, Nice, Constitutional and Lisbon Treaties, campaign information has been shown to be the key to understanding the vote choice.
Politicians do not discuss issues objectively in campaigns. They present issues in particular ways and mobilise voters by encouraging them to think along particular lines. Indeed, the way a political question is presented can produce dramatic differences in public opinion. For example, one American study found that while 85% of respondents supported allowing a hate group to hold a political rally when the question highlighted the importance of free speech, only 45% were in favor when the question emphasised public safety and the risk of violence. This is called a framing effect. It occurs when, in describing an issue or event, a speaker’s emphasis on a subset of potentially relevant considerations causes individuals to focus on these considerations when forming their opinions. Campaigners therefore strategically emphasise or deemphasise certain aspects of a referendum proposal in order to better achieve their goals.
