The Paris attacks and the bombing of the Metrojet plane over Egypt have shown that the terrorist threat from jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq, and ISIS in particular, demand an effective response. But that response should not lay the foundation for new cycles of violence.
The North Caucasus has been riven by armed conflict of varying intensity for more than 20 years. The Russian government, having recently called for the creation of a broad anti-terrorist coalition, considers its experience here to be a positive one. As a foreign ministry official recently commented in Kommersant: ‘Russia’s practical experience of combating international terrorism in the North Caucasus is the only successful example of its kind. There is yet to be such a successful example of deradicalisation of part of a population.’
That approach, however, is a worrying prospect. Moscow’s almost total reliance on military force to suppress underground insurgency and its rejection of dialogue with moderate voices may have reduced violence in the North Caucasus short term, but it cannot guarantee a lasting peace.
