Since Mexico's 2 July elections in which Felipe Calderón of the ruling National Action Party won the presidency by a narrow margin, losing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his supporters have mounted a long-running campaign to dispute the result, with protests in Mexico City to demand a citizens' recount. The Federal Electoral Institute is insisting on burning the election ballots according to Mexican law, despite both candidates' pleas to preserve them. Meanwhile, it is feared that the presence of protestors in the city centre during the 15-16 September independence day ceremonies may pose a risk of demonstrations turning violent. Professor George Grayson, a Latin America specialist and biographer of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, discusses the personality and politics behind the ongoing drama.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: One of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's views is that he is the legitimate president of Mexico and that the election was a fraud.
George Grayson: López Obrador lives in the past; he is a product of the 1970s and the 1980s - a time when the Mexican regime was extraordinarily corrupt. In the last ten years there have been major changes, so that national elections in Mexico are more transparent and reliable than in the United States. The kinds of "irregularities" that he cited were minor: such as voters who deposited their ballots for president in the ballot box for deputy; others marked an "X" on the candidate's name rather than on the party's symbol (which is proper); some make checkmarks rather than an "Xs". We are talking about human errors, not fraud. The highly-respected judges relied upon the votes that were cast and made a serious and fair determination of the winner.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: López Obrador and his followers want to continue their protest. They might disturb the independence day military parade in Mexico City on 16 September.
George Grayson: There will be an arrangement so that the so-called "desfile", the military parade, will take place as scheduled. There are negotiations going on behind the scenes to ensure that the traditional ceremony takes place. You have to remember also that López Obrador's party did extremely well in the 2 July elections. A member of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) will be the new mayor of Mexico City. The PRD will have 125 seats in the Congress, several dozen senators, and 13 of the 16 local government chiefs in Mexico City. These are politically ambitious men and women, who want to put aside protest to try to undertake the obligations of their office.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: So the PRD will distance itself from its charismatic leading figure?
George Grayson: The PRD is not a coherent political organization; it is more like a group of tribes. It appeared to be cohesive because leaders of the various "currents" believed that there was a good chance to win the presidency - and the party almost did. But now that Calderón is the virtual president-elect, these intramural groups have returned to fighting each other. López Obrador dominates only one or two of these half-dozen factions within the PRD.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: What drives López Obrador to lead such a relentless fight?
George Grayson: He has a messianic complex. He believes he's "called" to uplift the downtrodden. He lives in his own world and he is extremely secretive, dogmatic, intolerant and undemocratic. But to his credit, he is the only politician in recent memory to emphasize the gross inequalities between the rich and the poor, as well as the blatant poverty that afflicts almost fifty percent of Mexico's 107.5 million people.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: What would he do to improve the situation in Mexico?
George Grayson: He has diagnosed the problem correctly in terms of the horrendous inequality and the widespread poverty. Regrettably, his solutions are to turn back the clock thirty years to stress protectionism, an intrusive government, more subsidies, acute nationalism, and a large welfare state.
He fails to recognize that the world has changed, and that Mexico operates in the global environment. Moving to an enlarged, protected economy would put the country at a serious disadvantage with respect to its major competitors. For example, China is already eating Mexico's lunch by cutting into its markets abroad. If López Obrador's agenda were enacted China would also devour Mexico's breakfast and dinner. While López Obrador's description of his nation's problems is correct, his prescription for improving the lives of the poorest Mexicans is not only out of date but counter-productive.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: Will López Obrador be part of the new government if he can't be president?
George Grayson: He thinks the system is illegitimate and rotten to the core. He was preparing to protest the outcome of the balloting a year before the election took place. He will not accept a position in the government even in the highly unlikely situation that one were offered. Instead, he will assume the role of a "shadow" or "parallel" or "legitimate" president. As such, he will continually drive around the nation in his battered Tsuru, make speeches and organize demonstrations in opposition to the policies that Calderón proposes. That is good because the elite in Mexico have lived in such a pampered way that it is important to put pressure on them to undertake sweeping reforms. Having an articulate and strident critic of the Calderón government will serve a positive purpose.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: Is Felipe Calderón's presidency already damaged since he is blamed to be "illegitimate"?
George Grayson: The question of whether or not a president has a mandate or is legitimate depends largely on his actions in office. If Calderón is able to promote social, economic, energy and labour reforms by building coalitions in the Congress, no one will remember whether he won by 250,000 votes or 250 million votes.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: But will he be able to fundamentally change the situation in Mexico?
George Grayson: Calderón has experience as a legislator and he can work with the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which lost the presidency in 2000 to Fox and is now the third force in Congress. The PRI is a pragmatic party that has no ideology. In light of their poor performance on 2 July, leaders are looking for a way to rehabilitate the party's image. They want to show that they are responsible and progressive and not merely a cabal of self-interested obstructionists. Calderón has the political know-how to create alliances with the PRI and smaller parties to get a number of reforms passed. He will begin with initiatives that help the poor in order to undermine López Obrador's support.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: But his term officially doesn't commence before 1 December ...
George Grayson: ... Calderón will start immediately. Even though he does not take office until 1 December, the new Congress has begun work. There will be efforts in this legislative session (that begins on 1 September and ends at the end of the year) to accomplish some dramatic social reforms of the kind that López Obrador advocates. For example, there might be a universal pension for all people seventy years of age, of about seventy or eighty dollars a month; increased outlays on health-care for lower-income citizens; and enhanced educational opportunities. As mayor of Mexico City, López Obrador introduced the universal pension for senior citizens, which is extremely popular. Quite ironically, the National Action Party (PAN) and PRI may borrow this idea to take wind out of his sails.
Albrecht Wolfmeyer: Will it be possible to bridge the social divide in Mexico?
George Grayson: Calderón will do his best, but the challenge for Mexico - even if they can redistribute income - is to achieve robust, sustained growth with job creation. They have to increase the size of the pie, not simply make the slices more equal. That means eliminating or at least weakening many of the monopolies, oligopolies and bottle necks that infuse Mexico's economy. To spur economic growth in a sustained fashion is going to take a Herculean effort on his part. But the Calderón administration will be "un paso adelante", a step in the right direction for Mexico.
