Flickr/Citizen59. Some rights reserved.This is a country whose government seems unwilling or incapable of conducting desperately needed reforms, and whose economy is flat; where living conditions for the majority have deteriorated since they overthrew their erstwhile dictator, Ben Ali, five years ago. Two of the three engines of growth, tourism and the phosphate/fertilizer industry, have stalled and unemployment among the young in Kasserine, one of the towns which revolted in 2011 has increased to nearly 25% among young men and 38% among young women. This is a country where neither major party, the Islamist Ennahda party that governed from 2012 to 2014 and the lay coalition Nidaa Tounes currently in power, dares to take bold economic decisions. Foreign debt meanwhile is piling up at an alarming rate.
Political climate deteriorates
The informal sector has engulfed the economy and represents more than 50% of GDP thus depriving the government of much needed tax revenue and the formal economy of much needed demand. Doctors, lawyers, service industries such as private clinics avoid taxation, thus buttressing the privileges of an upper middle class which looks down on poorer Tunisians with a mixture of disdain and fear. As rioting spread through Tunisia last week, the security forces were unable stop the violent gangs which vandalised banks and supermarkets. This gives those who were demonstrating against government policies a bad name. The spread of mafia-style activities is a growing threat in Tunisia and attempts by senior officials to confuse genuine protests and criminal activity is disingenuous.
The history of modern Tunisia suggests that the month of January can be dangerous. On the 18th of that month in 1952, the nationalist leader Habib Bourguiba was arrested by the French colonial authorities. In 1978 the first general strike left many dead in the streets of Tunis. Two years later a Libyan-backed group of Tunisian dissidents took control, for a few days of the southern town of Gafsa. In 1984, the whole country rose in revolt against the doubling of the price of bread, a measure quickly rescinded by President Habib Bourguiba. Five years ago, four weeks of rioting forced Ben Ali to flee to Saudi Arabia and ushered in a wave of revolts across the Arab lands.
