A deal has been struck between rival leaders in Sudan over the disputed, oil-rich region of Abyei. President Omar al-Beshir and First Vice President Salva Kiir, respective leaders of northern and southern Sudan, signed an agreement on Sunday night that includes the creation of an interim administration in the region and allows international arbiters to over-see the process. It is hoped the deal will permit the return of tens of thousands of refugees who fled the vicious fighting that erupted in Abyei last month.
The toD verdict: The horrific consequences of conflict in the western region of Darfur, which has seen an estimated 400,000 die and 2.5 million displaced, tends to absorb international interest in Sudan. Rightly so, for that crisis remains a terrible smear on the world's conscience. But it is the Abyei region that really threatens the fragile stability instituted by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. That is why yesterday's deal is such a welcome breakthrough.
As happens so frequently, the roots of the conflict lie in access to resources. It is believed Abyei has generated $1.8 billion in oil revenue since 2005, and the south claims it has seen none of its share. The fighting that erupted last month risked re-igniting the civil war that ravaged Sudan for two decades. This weekend's deal looks promising - it includes an agreed interim border, encourages international arbitration, and establishes a joint military and civil administration.
But the stakes are high, and history militates against too much optimism. The 2005 agreement similarly called for a transition government aimed at local autonomy and fair distribution of oil wealth, with a local referendum to finally settle matters in 2011. Midway through that process, little progress has been made and leaders in both the north and south seem all too willing to continue militarising the dispute, using local tribes as their proxies. Given the ineffectual nature of international enforcement, and the potential wealth riding on the outcome, it remains to be seen whether both sides will be willing to accept the consequences of a democratic peace process.
Syria-Iran talks are "threat to Israel"
The new defence pact signed between Syria and Iran is being seen as a provocation to Israel and the United States. Details of the deal have yet to fully surface, although it is believed to involve the incorporation of Syria's missile program into the command structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The announcement came just days after it was revealed that Syria and Israel had re-opened talks for the first time since negotiations broke down in 2000. Commentators from Damascus University argue that the subsequent move towards Iran "is a direct message threatening Israel". At the very least, it demonstrates that Syria will not meet Israel's demand to cut ties with Iran. But in attempting to court both sides, others see signs of desperation on the part of Syria, as it loses control over events in Lebanon and finds itself increasingly "reduced to serving as a conduit for Iranian logistical support to Hizbollah."
India report: terrorism on the rise
A leaked document by the Indian government reveals fears that Pakistani intelligence services are continuing their support for Kashmiri insurgents, and that India faces an escalating threat from left-wing extremists and anti-India immigrants. The report claims that covert operations have been launched by the Pakistani ISI to destabilise India by promoting fundamentalism, and training and equipping militants. Although these threats are not new, they are said to be increasingly connected to the proliferation of terror cells and the influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. The report also highlights the failure of the Indian government to establish rigorous counter-measures.
In u-turn, Chavez tells FARC to give up
Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez made a shock turn-around this weekend as he called on Colombian insurgents to back down. Only six months ago, Chavez urged governments to give the FARC legitimate "belligerent status", rather than class them as terrorists. On his weekly television broadcast, Chavez told the FARC they had become an excuse for the United States "to threaten all of us." Perhaps the real concern was an increasingly embarrassing amount of evidence suggesting direct links between the Venezuelan government and the Colombian guerrillas. The final straw may have been the announcement on Saturday that Colombian authorities had captured a Venezuelan national guard officer in their territory, carrying 40,000 AK-47s, which they say were destined for the FARC.
