Sweden Democrats supporters gather to hear party leader Jimmie Åkesson, 2014. Image: Frankie Fouganthin (CC BY-SA 3.0) This Sunday’s national election could mark a dramatic shift in the landscape of Swedish politics. If the polls are accurate, it is unlikely that the traditional blocs on either the left or the right will win a majority. The balance of power might well be in hands of the Sweden Democrats (SD), a neo-nationalist party with an explicitly anti-immigrant platform. Support for the SD has essentially doubled in every election since 2002. In that year, the party earned only 1.4% of the national vote. Recent polls have consistently put the Sweden Democrats over 20%. Thus, on the eve of the 2018 election, it appears likely that the SD is poised to significantly increase its share of the electorate yet again.
While it is true that the SD will make significant gains this year, it is likely that the party is nearing its electoral ceiling. We admit that it may seem premature, even strange, to make predictions about future Swedish elections before all the votes have been cast and counted for the current one. Yet data indicates that there are limits to the SD’s future growth. Of course, a lot can change in four years and, unfortunately, our data sources do not include a crystal ball. Nevertheless, we can look to recent survey data for an idea of what is possible.
