The United States responded to the 9/11 attacks by terminating the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and quashing al-Qaida. At the time there was widespread domestic support for the action and most allied states were also in agreement, at least at first. A few analysts were more cautious and the openDemocracy view at the time was that al-Qaida wanted a war, to show how significant it was but also to trap Western forces in Afghanistan and drag the United States down in much the same way as Soviet Union had been in the 1980s.
Now, there are signs that precisely that is happening, with the Afghan government and the Taliban agreeing to an outline of how negotiations on a peace settlement might be achieved. This comes after two months of talks in Qatar that have really been between the United States and the Taliban. The main topic of the talks was the withdrawal of all uniformed US forces by next May in return for a Taliban ceasefire and a pledge from Taliban leadership that they would not allow al-Qaida or ISIS to maintain a presence in the country.
In reality, this is the tailend of the Trump plan to “bring our boys back” come what may, an intent that has been pursued with ruthless determination and already to considerable effect. Eight years ago, the Pentagon had close to 100,000 troops in the country, but that shrank to barely 10,000 a year ago. By last month it was down to 4,500 and it will decrease still further to 2,500 by 15 January, the week before the inauguration of the president-elect, Joe Biden.
