To mark the milestone of 1,000 columns over 20 years for openDemocracy, the previous column in this series looked back to the first, which argued against going to war in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks and predicted a long conflict to come.
Some 18 months later in April 2003, and two weeks into the Iraq war, another column argued that terminating the Saddam Hussein regime would lead to a drawn-out war and create deep instability across the Middle East.
The articles may have seemed thoroughly misjudged to some at the time but have turned out to be on the right track. Both were written in the context of a wider view of global security that cited three factors that were going to determine the nature of international conflict in the coming decades. These were an increasing rich/poor divide, environmental limits to growth and a global defence culture that prioritised military responses to challenges.
