Europe. Charles Clegg/ Some rights reserved.Ahead of Britain’s in/out referendum, there is much to ponder about looking at past referendum episodes and dissecting ongoing public ambivalence vis-à-vis the EU. The history of European integration has been a bumpy and risky journey but, deep down, Europeans have never really stopped questioning the EU’s existence. Since the EU is not a state supported by a constituting demos – it never had its ‘we, the people’ moment – it has only survived by being given the benefit of the doubt. Still, the EU has proven very resilient. French and Dutch voters may have voted down the constitutional treaty in 2005, and the Greeks may have recently experienced the irony of sending a resounding ‘no’ to Brussels – but the EU continues to stand on its feet, even in the current “polycrisis”, to use Jean-Claude Juncker’s words.
Three important lessons can be drawn from the intrinsically fragile yet enduring character of the EU, which campaigners from both sides need to integrate into their campaign narratives.
On balance…
First, relative national interest trumps everything. It would be foolish to campaign on the premise that the EU is either a nirvana or an absolute nightmare and, to be fair, no one apart from the most radical Leavers is set to do so. The electorate might not like the EU but they understand the logic of net benefits or deficits. They reason ‘on balance’. As found out by TUC and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner in May last year, a solid 77% of British voters expects political parties to come up with “concrete plans for sensible changes in [the] country” whereas 15% wait for “a big vision for radical change”.
