Two destroyed tanks in front of a mosque in Azaz, Syria, August 2012.Flickr/Christiaan Triebert.Some rights reserved.Over the coming weeks everyone concerned about climate change will begin thinking about how to convince President-elect Trump of its importance. Inevitably these discussions will turn towards making climate change a national security concern. Arguments that climate change might exacerbate conflict, migration and terrorism will be mobilized. Climate change will be framed as a threat multiplier.
New waves of migrants will spark conflict. Perhaps refugees fleeing war or drought will lead to the spread of terrorism. These are things that people across the political spectrum – including Trump supporters – are worried about. But the use and abuse of the idea of climate change as a threat multiplier is troubling.
The back story
It’s difficult to show a very direct, clear link between climate change and migration or armed conflict. Certainly patterns of both will change on a hotter planet. But no single episode of displacement or conflict can be pinned solely on climate change.
