All of this relates to the United States, but there are also upwards of 10,000 troops from other NATO states, including the UK. They have been planning to get out in September, even though many of them have been playing significant training roles. The security situation is so uncertain though, that the retreat may even be brought forward to 4 July.
The much wider picture in the coming months and years will be intense international power plays as neighbouring states jockey for position in this latest stage of ‘The New Great Game’. The British and Russian empires were central to the century-long struggle known as ‘The Great Game’, but neither is that significant any longer, especially Britain. Since geopolitical interest in Central Asia was renewed in the 1990s after the area’s mineral wealth became available to foreign interests after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia has remained largely on the sidelines, and the major players now are Pakistan, India and China, along with Turkey and Iran.
Pakistan leads the pack due to many long-term links between its powerful Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) and the Taliban. Pakistan’s absolute priority is to minimise any Indian influence in Afghanistan, whereas New Delhi seeks the direct opposite. The Pakistani army, in particular, fears India almost to the level of paranoia, convinced that the Hindu nationalist creed of Hindutva is all about creating a greater South Asia incorporating Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and, of course, Pakistan.
That may be seen as over the top by some outside commentators but Modi’s stridently nationalist BJP government, especially its behaviour in Kashmir, looks to Pakistani army leaders as proof of what they have been warning about for years.
One outcome of this is that Pakistan is more than happy to improve its relations with China, and recent reports that China might look for a peacekeeping role in Afghanistan is likely to be as much welcomed in Islamabad as it is resisted in New Delhi.
The game evolves
China has previously trained Afghan troops in mountain warfare, but over different terrain in China, whereas this new role would involve peacekeeping in Afghanistan. China fears that a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan could fuel opposition among the Islamic Uyghurs in north-western China. Whatever the extent of that fear, Beijing can see obvious advantages to such a close link in terms of its long-time competition with India. That, in turn, pushes New Delhi closer to Washington, and so the ‘Game’ evolves.
Meanwhile, Iran will build up its many existing connections in Western Afghanistan. It has little liking for the Taliban and also fears the continued smuggling of heroin across the border that fuels its substantial domestic drug problem. Even so, like China it wants to increase its connections with Afghanistan, not in its case because of India but as part of its opposition to what it sees as the threat from the US.
Extending the ‘Game’ further, there is Turkey, considered likely to be the one NATO country that would prefer to keep some troops in Afghanistan. Turkey recognises Afghanistan’s geopolitically important location, as well as its considerable mineral riches, and sees the country as a useful addition to its potential sphere of influence.
What is lacking in almost all of these machinations is a concern for the people of Afghanistan – although that hasn’t changed much since the US and its allies went to war with Afghanistan in the first place, two decades ago.
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