PKK militant watches people flee the Sur district of the mainly-Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, Turkey, after the authorities expand the curfew, January, 2016. Murat Bay /Press Association. All rights reserved. In Turkey, the pro-Kurdish People´s Democratic (HDP) Party won an unprecedented 13 percent of the national vote during Turkey’s General Election on June 7, 2015. For the first time since 2002, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary majority. Though this trend was reversed in the November election, with the AKP regaining political dominance and exhibiting increasing authoritarian tendencies, Turkey´s political landscape had clearly shifted. The growing influence of Kurds in the country both politically and militarily, for better or worse, means Turkey is holding the key to either fostering peace and stability in the region, or more violence and chaos.
These political developments in Turkey are influencing the peace negotiations with the armed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which are currently at a standstill. The Kurdish conflict and recent developments in Turkey are also affected by larger conflict dynamics in the region; even though Kurds’ situation varies from country to country, they are all in the end interconnected. The escalating violence in Syria has displaced millions, resulting in an influx of refugees to Turkey, the region, and particularly to Europe. This has focused international attention on the need for a political solution both in Turkey and in Syria.
Turkey’s changing political landscape
The perceived need for stability is the principal reason why the AKP received such an upsurge in votes during the November election. Armed confrontations between the PKK and the Turkish military intensified between the two elections. The increasing violence of the Islamic State (ISIS) constituted a second factor. One of the largest terror attacks in Turkey’s history, killing 102 people peacefully demanding a resolution to the Kurdish conflict, took place in Ankara in October 2015 and was attributed to the Islamic State (ISIS). In 2015 Turkey´s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) was accused of having secretly provided weapons to the militant group, demonstrating the complex transnational nature of these regional conflicts. Ankara´s shift in political priorities… to a military solution, in the face of a strengthened PKK in Turkey and the region, grows clearer.
