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Where does the key to political change lie in the post-Soviet space?

Twenty five years after the fall of the Soviet Union, the post-Soviet world is caught in authoritarian stasis. How can grassroots movements find long-term success?

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19 August 1991: protesters clamber on tanks in defence of the "White House", or Supreme Soviet. Two years later, the "White House" would have a very different meaning. (c) Sergei Subbotin / RIA Novosti. All rights reserved.This month marks the 25th anniversary of the failed August 1991 coup in the Soviet Union. This last-ditch attempt to save the USSR turned out to be its final nail in the coffin, its coup de grace. Within days, consecutive Soviet republics proclaimed independence and four months later, after the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus had declared the Union null and void, Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as head of a state which had ceased to exist. 

This abortive coup was sparked by divisions within the Soviet elite, which had fragmented during the late 1980s under the pressure of perestroika. Though the implosion of the Soviet Union was, in part, fueled by grassroots protest movements, this event has not been deemed a “revolution”. Instead, “revolution” is reserved mainly for political change in the post-Soviet era and the mass protest movements that have emerged across Eurasia.  

Where then does the key to political change in the post-Soviet space lie — in grassroots “revolutions” or divisions among elites?