A U.S. Marine tries to drive a disabled Humvee that was attacked in a coordinated ambush in Ramadi against American troops. ABACA PRESS/PA Images. All rights reserved.A quick declaration of military victory was a feature of United States strategy following the rapid early campaigns against the Taliban (October-November 2001) and the Saddam Hussein regime (March-April 2003). In each case, it came during the lull before insurgency escalated with a vengeance. Trump's claim, in relation to ISIS, that "we've won in Syria, we've won in Iraq" should be seen in that light.
ISIS has indeed lost its much-vaunted caliphate in Iraq and Syria, but even here the group remains active and capable of frequent attacks. It and its associates are also launching operations in Somalia, Yemen, the Sahel, Afghanistan and the Philippines, while in Libya it is reconfiguring. Several zones in Africa and Asia may acquire new opportunities for ISIS in 2018, as the co-presence of armed insurgents and US forces create further dynamics of conflict (see Shawn Snow, "New in 2018: The fight against ISIS evolves", Military Times, 31 December 2017).
But it is also worth returning to Iraq: the source of this new phase of war began when ISIS developed out of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) in 2013. Two issues that are particularly relevant: the extent of Iraqi army losses and what it means for post-ISIS internal security, and the Iraqi government and US-led coalition's inability to begin the gigantic task of urban rebuilding after their intense aerial and artillery bombardments.
