Brexiteers hope to convince us that Britain will, after exit, be able to retain its status as a global trading nation with special deals with its largest trading partners in the EU and elsewhere. Remain has painted a bleak picture of what will happen to the economy if Britain exits. Applying some elementary game theory to post-Brexit negotiations suggests that things might be worse for an EU trade deal than even Remain's so-called "project fear" is arguing.
The OECD's recently published analysis of the economic consequences of Brexit concluded that by 2020, UK GDP will be 3.1% smaller than it would be with continued EU membership, and more than 5% smaller by 2030. [The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, April 2016]. Other analyses have arrived at similar conclusions. Such estimates have, unsurprisingly, been cited by Remain campaigners as a powerful argument against the UK leaving the EU.
