The current conflict in Ukraine has preoccupied Western media, analysts, scholars, and policymakers for well over a year now – and has left many of the assumptions that once governed relations between Russia and the West in tatters. There is little doubt that the outcome of the drama being played out in the east of that country will shape new rules of the game between Moscow, the former Soviet republics, and Brussels, possibly for decades to come. Conscious of this fact, the smaller states in the Eastern Partnership region – Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan – view the Ukrainian crisis as a decisive moment: one that might determine the nature of their statehoods in the foreseeable future.
To some extent, the plight of the weakest, and most dependent of these smaller states – Armenia – should have alerted policymakers to the seriousness of Russia’s intentions in re-asserting its position within ‘its’ near abroad. Indeed, Yerevan was clearly strong-armed into the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU). The country had been expected to initial its Association Agreement with the EU in Vilnius during November of that year, after the successful conclusion of negotiations in June. So when its president, Serj Sargsyan, announced his dramatic U-turn on 3 September 2013, it came as a shocking surprise to both officials and seasoned observers of Armenian politics.
Yerevan was clearly strong-armed into the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU)
