The reopening of the US Consulate in East Jerusalem, which reverses one of Trump’s key moves against the Palestinian Authority, was the most significant outcome of the US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s four-state visit to the Middle East this week.
President Joe Biden’s top diplomat also announced immediate support for reconstruction in Gaza, while maintaining strong support for Israel. Yet Blinken has not proposed new peace talks, nor has he engaged with Hamas, which the US and Israel still deem to be a terrorist organisation. Instead, his quick tour through Jerusalem, Ramallah, Cairo and Amman was mainly focused on consolidating the ceasefire. If it helps, good, but it still does nothing to address the underlying issues.
This is part of a wider US reorientation from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, which may prove to be a long-term shift. It is one of five significant political processes underway, all of them interconnected. The other four involve: Russia and China increasing their influence in the region; Israel becoming less reliant on the US; the success of regional autocracies; and least noticed but most significant, social stirrings across the region that may turn all the other trends on their heads.
