Ahmet Davutoğlu: Turkey’s Nine-story-tall Prime Minister; Image Credit: Oguz AlyanakOn June 7, 2015, Turkish constituents will be visiting the ballot box to elect a new leader. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has won seven consecutive elections (three general, three local and one Presidential) in the past 13 years, is once again the main contender of this election cycle.
This time, however, there are different dynamics shaping the political scene. For one, opposition parties wage a wiser election campaign this time. Rather than focusing on ideological divides (Turkish/Kurdish; laicite/Islam), and blaming the AKP for polarizing the nation (which has been a valid critique that surprisingly did not gain them much leverage in previous elections), they prioritize social policies pertaining to welfare and democratization. The constructive language that they adopt in their election programs and the concrete steps they lay out online, through social media, and on the ground, through political rallies, instil in the constituents greater confidence, and more importantly, relief that the AKP is no longer the sole contender for Turkey’s progressive and innovative political party slot.
While there are solid indicators to be optimistic about the growing support for the opposition, the AKP is expected to maintain its position as leading party. Most recent surveys estimate the AKP will have no less than 40 percent of the votes casted. Depending on how well the opposition parties do (whether, for example, the Peoples’ Democratic Party/HDP could pass the 10 percent electoral threshold, which would cost the AKP 60 or so seats in the Parliament), 40 percent may or may not translate into the AKP gaining enough seats to form the government. The danger with that is President Erdoğan’s ego, which, we argue, not only harms the AKP in the long run, but also dispenses with the Islamo-pragmatic political culture it was able to construct in the past 13 years. With Erdoğan pushing the AKP to the limits in order to obtain enough votes to force a constitutional change (thereby transforming Turkey into a presidential system—making him both the President of Turkey and the leader of the AKP), the AKP may have more than just this election to lose.
