The Independent features a poll today showing that under Alan Johnson's leadership the Labour party would be able to avert an outright Cameron victory at the next general election. If reports are to be believed the PLP made a big show of rallying around Gordon Brown in their Monday evening meeting with only a small number calling on him to go (though apparently many of the rebels weren't there and the reports seem to have mostly come from briefings by Brown's allies). The results of this poll, which provides the first evidence that Labour would do better under a new leader, are likely to strengthen the resolve of Labour rebels and provide further support to their view (if any more were needed) that Brown's exit is the best chance they have of preventing a Tory landslide. According to the Indy:
The findings were described as "stunning" by rebel Labour MPs last night. They believe it could influence Labour's agonised debate over whether it should back or sack the beleaguered Prime Minister.
Under Mr Brown's leadership, the Conservative Party would win an overall majority of 74, according to ComRes. But if Mr Johnson, the Home Secretary, replaced Mr Brown, the Tories would be six seats short of a majority in a hung parliament - raising the prospect of a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats to keep the Tories out. Mr Johnson is the only one of eight possible Labour leaders who could prevent an outright Tory victory. Under Jack Straw, David Miliband, Jon Cruddas, Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, James Purnell or Mr Brown, Mr Cameron would win a majority of between 10 and 94, ComRes found. Significantly, Labour would do better under Mr Straw, Mr Miliband, Mr Cruddas and Mr Balls than under Mr Brown.
Mr Johnson is also the most popular of the eight contenders among people who regard themselves as natural Labour supporters and among people who backed the party at the last general election. Charles Clarke, who called on the Prime Minister to stand down at a packed meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) last night, said of the ComRes survey: "This poll is the convincing evidence that Labour needs a serious and considered debate about its future direction and leadership."
I'd say the clever money is still on Brown being ditched in the autumn after the party conference, mainly because by that point a new PM will have no impact on the timing of the next election. From the perspective of spineless Labour MPs this may seem like the best of both worlds: another half year in the job (with all those nice perks and privileges) and a new leader who isn't Brown to give them a fighting chance at the next election.
When you take a step back from the pathetic soap opera scenes of the last week it really is quite astonishing that Brown is still here. Just think: a severe recession and unemployment, a total collapse in trust in the political system, the election of fascists to the EU, and Labour polling at a historic low of 15%. Truly, it’s a credit to the Machiavellian arts of Peter Mandelson. But whilst the bribes and the bullying may have saved Brown's skin for now, over the long-term he'll surely reap the consequences because whoever you blame for the political problems the government is now in, one thing is for sure: Brown and his cohort have treated people disgracefully. Take this, for example, from the Indy article: "People are being threatened with being smeared in the tabloids if they didn't fall into line." Admittedly it’s from a "leading rebel" source, but given what we know about how the Brown machine operates following smeargate it seems perfectly reasonable to judge that this is what it has taken for Brown to buy himself extra time in power. Is this what his "Presbyterian conscience" has taught him? It really is the pits.
But people rarely lose friends and make enemies in politics so easily without it catching up with them (just ask McBride). When the next coup builds they'll be a much deeper well of resentment to draw on.
