Photo of Jean-Baptiste Salvaing and partner Jessica Schneider. Kamil Zihnioglu/AP/Press Association. All rights reserved.The carnage in the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida on 12 June 2016 is one of the very worst of the so-called 'lone wolf' assaults. Though it was certainly an anti-LGBT attack, it is still not clear how much it was inspired by ISIS. That connection is evident in the case of the killing of a police commander and his partner in front of their 3-year-old son, near Paris on 13 June, which has so affected opinion in France.
What is becoming apparent is that ISIS is now fully engaged in encouraging if not instigating attacks across north Africa and western Europe, sometimes extending to north America. This wide-ranging effort comes at a time when the movement is under serious pressure in Iraq and Libya. Some analysts are also concerned with developments only indirectly related to ISIS and al-Qaida. These include an increase in pro-ISIS support in Kosovo and the southern Philippines, the onset of more frequent attacks in Bangladesh and the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.
Even so, it is the connection between the attacks on western targets and the restrictions that ISIS faces in its self-declared caliphate that are germane. These have two aspects, only one of which is commonly recognised.
