The US accuses Iran of violating the deal, while the Iranians respond that it was the Americans who breached its terms, first, by withdrawing and reimposing sanctions.
Now, under the new Joe Biden administration, the US has expressed a willingness to re-engage in diplomacy, but only under the condition that the Iranians “step back” and abide by the terms of the JCPOA. The Iranians respond that they will only consider doing so if the United States lifts all sanctions.
Just like in 1962, each side insists the other take the initial step of de-escalation due to the inference of bad faith ascribed to both. And just like in 1962, each side holds firm in its position and insists it will not take the first step. Where do we go from here?
Everybody wins?
A proposal floated by the Iranian foreign minister, and echoed in other diplomatic circles, is the idea of taking “synchronous measures” (also referred to as a “freeze-for-freeze”), whereby both parties agree to concurrently act to de-escalate, rather than the standard ‘quid pro quo’ approach to diplomacy whereby one side acts first to signal good faith, followed by a reciprocal step by the other.
When Kennedy and Khrushchev were faced with a similar challenge in 1962, it was precisely this type of ‘synchronous measure’ that helped resolve the standoff.
At the time, Khrushchev was concerned about the placement of American intermediate-range 'Jupiter’ nuclear missiles in Turkey, which were within range of the entire western Soviet Union (including Moscow and Leningrad). In response, the Soviets placed their nuclear-capable missiles in Cuba as a deterrent to any US first-strike using the Jupiter missiles.
When it became clear to both leaders that they had apocalyptic weapons pointed at each other, the pressure was on to immediately de-escalate to avert a nuclear war. But who would take the first step? Much like with Iran and the United States today, Kennedy insisted that Khrushchev withdraw the missiles from Cuba as the first step. The Soviet premier insisted that it was the United States who 'broke the rules' by blockading Cuba and had also encircled the Soviet Union with offensive nuclear weapons. It was the classic playground ‘you did it first’ argument.