When Vladimir Putin ordered the forces into Ukraine, he expected it to be largely settled within a couple of days. Now, into the fourth week of intense war, with well over ten thousand people killed and Ukrainian cities being continually bombed and shelled, a grim pattern is emerging. In the short term, neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve their aims.
Why is this?
As Steve Trimble and Piotr Butowski wrote in leading US security journal Aviation Week and Space Technology, Putin intended for three things to happen:
