A supporter of Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Picture by Ameer Al Mohammedaw/DPA/PA Images. All rights reserved. For the past and possibly the next few weeks, Baghdad has been witnessing intense meetings between politicians, religious figures and international lobbyists to guarantee a governmental ally in the capital, as a result of the parliamentary elections held on May 12th 2018. To some, this is Iraq’s fourth democratic achievement since 2003, and to others, it stands for the fourth legitimization of a corrupted system, designed by an occupier – as reflected by the low 44.5% voter turnout. These are the first elections following Iraq’s war (2014-2017) against ISIS and the major spat between Baghdad and Erbil, following the independence referendum organised by Iraq’s Kurdish leader, Masoud Barzani, against national and international criticism. The unlikely alliances and the unforeseen results of the elections present many challenges for the formation of a new government
Who are the winners?
The top four winners, starting from the highest were the Sairoon (Forward) Alliance, al-Fatah Alliance, al-Nasr (Victory) Alliance and the State of the Law (SOL) Coalition and the KDP sharing the fourth place. Sairoon, which won with 54 seats, is led by prominent Shi’ite nationalist figure, Muqtada al-Sadr, in alliance with the Iraqi Communist Party. Al-Fatah came in second with 47 seats and is led by pro-Iran Hadi Al-Amri, leader of Badr Corps, a guerrilla force formed by Iran to fight the Iraqi army during the Iran-Iraq war. Al-Amri is also known for being one of the Popular Mobilization Unit’s (PMU) main leaders, which is why many media platforms refer to his political coalition as the PMU representative, a very inexact generalization of a diverse force. Prime Minister (PM) al-Abadi’s al-Nasr only came in third. This came as a surprise, as most were betting on his victory following the government forces’ defeat against ISIL and his impressive diplomacy in dealing with the Kurdish referendum, retaking Kirkuk without causing a civil war. Finally, there was a tie at 25 seats between former PM Nouri al-Malki’s SOL and Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party.
What’s next?
The Iraqi parliament, known as the Council of Representatives, consists of 329 elected seats, with a quota for women and minorities. The winning party needs a majority of 165 seats to form a cabinet and appoint a PM. Thereupon, forming coalitions with other parties is paramount, and it would entail candidates that please all parties involved.
