The Ukrainian crisis will hit Central Asia and the Caucasus, but not the way they think. While economic deterioration in the form of decreasing GDP hardly bodes well for the future, the horizon is also clouded by the prospect of social conflict.
Central Asian states such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are not prepared to welcome labour migrants returning from Russia back into the fold. Addressing the returnees’ demands for employment, healthcare and social welfare has become increasingly difficult in states where the private sector is underdeveloped, the economic situation is unstable, and the national balance of payments, debt, central government finance and trade indices steadily continue to deteriorate.
Labour migration trends
Rising rapidly in recent years, Central Asian labour migration can be seen as a social cost of post-Soviet transition, affecting a nation’s independent statehood. For a long time, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan were the biggest suppliers of labour migrants to Russia. Meanwhile, other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) lagged behind, such as Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
