UKIP is not a 'flash in the pan'. Flickr/Chris. Some rights reserved.Both the ‘main’ UK parties are breathing a sigh of relief that UKIP made no advances in numbers of seats at the UK General Election due to the nature of the first past the post (FPTP) system. The partisan press, left and right, has since been full of UKIP ‘splits’ and ‘self destructions’, hoping that the textbook ‘flash in the pan’ narrative will apply. However, these seem to have died down already, to be replaced by the alleged savagery of claim and counter claim by various contestants to be Labour leader. And of course the barely concealed grim menace and standoff which clearly exists within the Tory party over the EU, now spilling out into the press. It is vaguely polite. At the moment.
The electoral future of UKIP and its cohesion, is bound up with the EU referendum, just as much in regard to what happens in the long run-up to the vote, not just in regard to the vote itself. The realisation of how well UKIP could benefit has essentially stopped all talk of internal dissent. Like the Scottish referendum, it will expose over a long period the dangers for Labour of seeming to be in bed with the government and crucially with some of the businessmen being pushed forward to lend ‘credibility’ whose tax affairs, past public statements, involvement in financial scandals, bonuses etc will this time all be up for scrutiny by the No side. This has started already. And if only UKIP appears to be the champion of the voter, while Labour sits on its hands, the result in the North at various electoral contests could be similar to what happened in Scotland on 7th May.
Almost 4 million voted UKIP on 7th May, and there is now little real sign that the party is on the verge of serious infighting, less indeed than at any time in its history. There is a reason: the one potentially big beneficiary in UK politics over the next three years is UKIP, and there is just too much to lose. Irrespective of any iron rule that is alleged to be being imposed, for the first time in 20 years, they appear not to have to be told to hold back.
