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The Ukraine war is at a dangerous stalemate. What’s next?

Vladimir Putin is now fighting a proxy war against NATO. Losing would be a disaster for either side

The Ukraine war is at a dangerous stalemate. What’s next?
Russia’s war aims have been reduced to taking as much control of Donbas as possible | Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters/Alamy Stock Photo
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Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine went wrong from the very first day but the paradox is that two months later it is entering its most dangerous phase: an unstable and violent stalemate.

NATO and the Pentagon variously estimate Russia has suffered between 7,000 and 15,000 war deaths and up to 30,000 serious injuries. These losses have not just been among the poorly trained new recruits and conscripts but have extended to the elite forces spearheading the entire assault.

One of these, the 331st Guards Parachute Regiment lost at least 40 of its soldiers in the first three weeks, including its commanding officer, Colonel Sergei Sukharev. By six weeks, its losses were reported to be more than double that, at around a hundred. Given that at least twice that number would have been seriously injured, more than a third of the entire regiment is likely to have been wiped out.