Some debates never die; they just get replayed. After the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late December 1979, the United States imposed economic sanctions against the USSR. The Russian Federation since March 2014 has been subject to US and EU sanctions for its annexation of Crimea and active role in the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine.
The targets of the latest sanctions – political elites, business executives, and large companies and banks with close ties to Vladimir Putin – are more selective this time, but the continuation of the sanctions for nearly a year has rekindled the debate about the effectiveness of sanctions. Can sanctions compel governments to change policies? Do they encourage a ‘rally round the flag’ effect? Can they help bring about regime change (which by now is the only way political power can genuinely change hands in Russia)?
The aim of sanctions
The huge academic literature on sanctions addresses these questions in various ways, depending on what the aim of the sanctions is. Often the aim is to force a specific change of policy or behaviour. In some instances, however, the coercing state has had the more ambitious objective of destabilising and fomenting unrest in a targeted state. The idea is that if economic conditions deteriorate, the vast majority of people in the target country will blame their own government for the hardships and possibly rise up against it.
