Russian fighter jets and bombers, Hemeimeem air base. Pavel Golovkin/AP/Press Association Images. All rights reserved.In the early weeks of this year, Pentagon sources were reporting that the intense air war against ISIS had killed 30,000 of the movement’s paramilitaries. This military assault, however, had long been factored into ISIS's strategy. As earlier columns in this series have indicated, there is evidence that ISIS planners had already begun to prepare attacks overseas in response to the air campaign. The two major Tunisian attacks on western tourists, and later ones in Brussels, Paris and elsewhere, are part of this longer-term plan.
The implication is that ISIS, if suppressed in Iraq and Syria, would be able to respond by morphing into a more traditional insurgency that was still capable of causing continuing and deep insecurity across the Middle East, north Africa, and probably elsewhere (see "ISIS's war: real to virtual, far to near", 4 August 2016).
A more recent indication from United States military sources is that the number of ISIS operatives now “taken off” the battlefield has risen to as many as 45,000, though it is unclear if this means deaths, injuries or temporary tactical withdrawals. That leaves ISIS with between 15,000 and 20,000 engaged in combat. Against them, the US is further strengthening its own troop numbers in Iraq, especially to support an Iraqi assault on Mosul, expected to develop in October-November 2016. After more than two years since it exploded onto the scene, there is confidence in Washington that ISIS really is in decline in its core ares.
