AQIM propaganda video. Wikimedia Commons.The partial cessation of hostilities in Syria, which came into effect on 27 February 2016, has so far held for over three weeks, longer than most people expected. Russia followed on 15 March by announcing the withdrawal of most of its military forces. These two events offer a small degree of optimism over prospects for the current round of "proximity talks" in Vienna.
In this context, the United States might seek to use diplomatic progress in Syria to put more pressure on ISIS. In fact, a new report by Open Briefing clearly illustrates that western military involvement in both Syria and Iraq is already increasing.
At the same time, the centre of western security concern is shifting to north Africa, the Sahel and the west African coast. For example, escalatiing western input in Libya is the subject of interesting analysis by (among others) Richard Reeve at Oxford Research Group. He points to the risk that western military intervention could once again have particularly dangerous consequences.Yet indications that a substantial air assault is being planned seem to confirm Washington's direction of travel.
