This is not the first time the spectre of war in Bosnia-Herzegovina has raised its head since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement 25 years ago, with each and every crisis being deemed more profound than the last.
At the same time, the safeguards that have helped mitigate the sense of instability, particularly those of the EU and US, have dwindled over time. Confronted with threats of secessionist moves by Milorad Dodik, the current Bosnian Serb member of the country’s tripartite presidency, Bosnia-Herzegovina does not know which way to turn, nor how to respond.
And while the possibility of full-scale war is only slight, the potential for sporadic outbreaks of violence is very real. In his report to the UN earlier this month, the country's new high representative, Christian Schmidt, said “the prospects for further division and conflict are very real.” The Guardian reported that Schmidt’s comments came in response to fears that the Republika Srpska, one of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s two entities, may proceed with plans to recreate its own army. Were the country’s armed forces to be split into two or more parts, it would necessitate the reinforcement of international peacekeepers to prevent potentially violent confrontations between the Republika Srpska and those from the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the country’s other entity, endeavouring to prevent attempts at secession.
