Donald Trump. Press Association/Andrew Milligan. All rights reserved
Well before America and the world woke up to the calamitous certainty of a Trump presidency, liberal recriminations and fiercely competing narratives had already emerged. Given the impact of the election, the agitation is as understandable as the divergence of interpretations. The prevention of further contagion — for instance in France’s upcoming election — depends on making sure the diagnosis is correct.
Historians, of course, have no particular prerogative in this debate. However, since Trump’s election is now unfortunately a past event, deciphering its deeper reasons falls into their natural remit. They should sound a word of warning against making too much of the relatively small number of unforeseen voting patterns on November 8. As the great French historian Fernand Braudel once wrote, there are good reasons for social scientists to “abhor the event,” chief among them that “the short-term is the most capricious and deceptive form of time.” We should not let it draw us into too much speculation about the motives of a relatively small minority of voters.
