25 April: Republic Square, Yerevan. Source: Mikayel Zolyan. Independent journalist and political scientist David Petrosyan has been writing for OpenDemocracy since 2014. In a 2016 presentation, he predicted the possible fall of Serzh Sargsyan in 2018 after Armenia's 2015 constitutional referendum solidified the president's illegitimacy in society. David submitted this text to oDR, but we didn't publish it — looking back on it now, it has a lot to say.
For many international observers, events in Armenia look like another “colour revolution” — whether in the positive or negative interpretation of that phrase. Whether it’s a revolution or not, it’s clear that Armenia’s political field was cleared under Serzh Sargsyan’s rule, and the opportunities for participating in parliamentary politics were limited. What’s the best way to describe what’s happening?
It’s too early to talk about the “fall of the regime” and, most likely, incorrect. The regime is a very complex system of clan and oligarchical relationships, criminal and clientele components, monopolies, corruption and other elements — these have developed systematically over the past 20 years. These components have gone nowhere.
