David Davis, the new Brexit Secretary in Theresa May's cabinet. Gareth Fuller / Press Association. All rights reserved.I do not wish to understate the tragic consequences of the vote in the United Kingdom: either for the British or for Europe. But I am stunned by the way in which French (and foreign) headlines are presenting the facts to us: "After Brexit…”. Some rare exceptions notwithstanding, most seem to accept and agree that an exit has taken place. In reality, we are most assuredly entering a period of turbulence in which the outcome is anything but clear. It is this uncertainty that I would like to chronicle and interpret.
Comparison, we know, is never definitive, but how can we forget that in the recent history of European politics, national and transnational referendums are never put into practise? This was the case in 2005 with the "European constitution", in 2008 with the Lisbon treaty, and even more obviously in 2015 with the memorandum imposed on Greece. It is highly likely that we will see the same pattern this time. The British ruling class – beyond the personal conflicts which divide them tactically – is manoeuvring to delay the deadline and to negotiate the most favourable terms of "exit". Some governments (the French most prominently, as well as the spokesperson of the Commission), are ramping up their cries of “out is out”, and “leave means leave”. But Germany is not listening with the same ear, meaning there will be no unanimity (except that of a presentational facade).
At the end of a period of tension (the outcome of which will be determined more by the fluctuations of the financial markets than by public opinion), the most plausible outcome will be a proposal for the fabrication of a new geometry of the "system" of European states, in which formal belonging to the European Union will always be combined with other structures (the Eurozone, but also NATO - the security systems at borders that will succeed Schengen - and a "zone of free exchange" defining the functions of economic forces). Equally, from this point of view, the comparison between Grexit and Brexit may prove to be instructive. The weakness of Greece, abandoned by all those countries who were (logically) obliged to support their claims, led to a regime of interior exclusion. However, the relative strength of the United Kingdom (which can count on strong support from within the EU) will without doubt lead to an accentuated form of exterior inclusion.
