On Sunday, May 20, 2018, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in the Bosnian capital to address supporters living in Europe, ahead of snap elections in his country. DepoPhotos/Press Association. All rights reserved.The idea that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will certainly win the country’s snap general elections on June 24 seems widely prevalent both inside and outside the country. Until recently, even the opposition groups in Turkish society predominantly shared this presupposition on the grounds that given the very high stakes Mr. Erdoğan cannot afford the risk of losing.
It makes sense for Mr. Erdoğan’s opponents to despair, considering the obvious “unfair playing field” during the November 1 re-vote in 2015 and the April 16 referendum last year. The referendum, in particular, is broadly accepted as the first vote since the beginning of free and fair competitive elections in 1950, where electoral fraud, practiced not only on the spot but also at the Supreme Board of Elections (YSK), is widely believed to have changed the results of the vote. Despite all, elections in Turkey are not like the ones in fully-fledged authoritarian systems, where the results are known beforehand. Political scientists agree that in “competitive authoritarian systems”, elections might turn into a show for incumbents since the playing field is heavily skewed in their favor to stay in power.
However, it does not necessarily mean that the opposition has no chances whatsoever. In fact, depending on their ability to go through hoops, the opposition might have a real shot at winning. For reasons associated with both Mr. Erdoğan’s leadership and the strategies of the opposition, I believe that this may be the case in Turkey’s snap vote on June 24.
