My God, he took my advice. I know I can never prove that John Kerry, in his darkest hour, overwhelmed by advisers offering bad counsel, talking about Vietnam rather than anything remotely relevant, turned to openDemocracy for a breath of fresh air. I cannot prove that this happened, but I cannot be certain that such a thing did not occur.
Whatever is the case (and you can imagine which version of the story I will tell) last night John Kerry stopped the bleeding, winning the first pivotal presidential debate by adopting the foreignpolicy strategy I urged in my last column. A close race will now doubtless get closer. Even more importantly, Senator Kerry has at last found a coherent campaign narrative: Iraq is a distraction from the war on terror, not central to its prosecution.
Before praising the senator for following my sage advice, it is necessary to issue a series of caveats. The debate was surprisingly issueoriented, with both candidates seeming well in command of the facts and figures underlying their policy positions. President Bush, as predicted, stayed resolutely on message: Iraq is central to fighting and winning the war on terror, and Senator Kerry has held every position under the sun; but consistency is a key virtue for a commanderinchief.
The senator said some odd things, such as that bilateral talks with North Korea were the way to go in defusing the crisis. Surprisingly the president made the wonky but correct observation that engaging China in a multilateral forum is critical to putting pressure on Pyongyang, that bilateral talks would undermine American efforts to leverage the only country with real clout to affect Kim Jong Il. And in his most disingenuous moment, Kerry implied that by rebuilding alliances somehow, some way more allies would directly contribute to helping on the ground in Iraq (we all know this is a pipe dream). He went on a bit, though never approached Al Gore status. He talked too much about Vietnam (for Gods sake, stop).
But while not winning by a knockout, there is little doubt Senator Kerry won the debate on points. As the resolutely truthful John McCain put it, the debate was John Kerrys brightest moment. Its not just that he sounded like a commanderinchief, he appeared passionate without being angry, avoiding the ghost of Howard Dean. Senator Kerry, in one vintage moment, finally managed to parry the Bush campaigns hitherto skilful portrayal of him as ritually inconstant, while at the same time linking American worries about Iraq to attacking a Bush strength in the polls fighting the war on terror.
When challenged about the fact that he was for the war in Iraq, then supported a Democratic appropriation for postwar reconstruction, then voted against a Republican version of the bill (surely evidence of flipflopping if any were needed), Senator Kerry finally had an answer: I made a mistake in how I talked about the war. But the president made a mistake in invading Iraq. Which is worse?
Suddenly all Kerrys verbiage about Iraq can be seen in a new light. He clearly delineated the costs of the invasion: the US has no exit strategy in Iraq; attacks on both civilians and American soldiers have increased since the June handover to Iyad Allawis caretaker government; the war has cost America $200 billion and counting; that the US has sustained over 90% of the international casualties in Iraq while paying for more than 90% of the reconstruction.
Senator Kerry, by placing the locus of the terrorist problem geographically outside of Iraq, made the further telling point that Iraq distracted America from catching Osama bin Laden when he may have been holed up in Afghanistan. He went on, linking mistakes in Iraq to increased hostility to America in the Muslim world, which in turn has harmed the very alliances that are critical to meeting the terrorist threat through sharing intelligence, following terrorist finances, and policing. Senator Kerry melded the problems in Iraq into a coherent general critique of the president regarding the issue most Americans care most aboutthe war on terror. As he reminded the president, it was Osama bin Laden who crashed those planes into the World Trade Center, not Saddam.
As E.M. Forster advised an eager young Oxford graduate when asked what was the secret to life, Only connect. The campaign is far from over George W Bush is still ahead in most postdebate polls, though the race seems to be tightening again. But last night John Kerry stopped the bleeding, and connected with the American public on the seminal issue of the day. Not bad for a nights work. Encouraged, I may offer the senator more unsolicited advice.
