We in the UK are living in an age of chronic uncertainty, in which crises pile into one another, plunging millions of people deeper into insecurity, impoverishment, stress and illness. There was the financial crash of 2008, a decade of austerity, a series of six pandemics culminating in COVID-19 (with more to follow), and now the cost-of-living crisis as inflation mounts, possibly reaching an incredible 20% this winter.
And then, of course, there’s the impending ecological disaster confronting the whole world, as climate change spirals out of control, bringing famine, droughts, flooding and more.
Nassim Taleb coined the term ‘black swan’ to designate shocks that were rare, unpredictable and had devastating consequences. They are not rare now. But they are uncertain – in terms of when, where and why they occur and who will be adversely affected.
