The 'Gherkin' and Canary Wharf at sunrise in London. Stefan Rousseau / Press Association. All rights reserved.The secession of Britain from Europe by means of referendum has caused a big shock, not least in Britain itself. Various notables claim that the process is reversible. The IMF says that Brexit has set the whole world economy back a peg. The Europeans have been more sanguine: ‘let’s get it over with soon’ being the main idea.
Brexit is a very big deal. It will likely trigger the dissolution of the United Kingdom, which was in turn a vehicle for the largest empire in history, an organisation with a fifth of the world’s population and a quarter of its land surface. So many global institutions rest on an assumption of continuity – and Britain has been at the centre of it all for so long – that a sense of political instability is understandable. Rather than play down the hype, I wish to argue that the stakes are high indeed and the political ramifications serious.
The United Kingdom is on its last legs. Scotland will surely go it alone soon even if Europe is reluctant to accept a new separatist member. The two Irelands, with one half in the EU and the other out, will be under great pressure to reunify. We have already seen big changes in the British political parties: the Liberal democrats have been almost annihilated, Labour is eviscerating itself, the Tories have been reconstituted as a nationalist party. The assumption that the main parties are formed along class lines seems less and less tenable. The elephant in the room is London, no question. But what scenarios are there for London’s future? The elephant in the room is London, no question. But what scenarios are there for London’s future?
