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Germany's demographic challenge

Germany is by no means an unstoppable juggernaut, and the re-erection of trade barriers across the continent and a return to a strong Deutschmark would ravage the economy.

Published:
Outside the German Embassy in London, July 15, 2015.
Outside the German Embassy in London, July 15, 2015.

Outside the German Embassy in London, July 15, 2015. Demotix/ Roland Ravenhill. All rights reserved.The recent history of the Greek crisis has conclusively demonstrated that Germany runs Europe. Although the Teutonic nation neither desires nor wields complete and unchallenged mastery, Berlin can impose its will on its European partners when the country feels its vital interests are at stake.

This was the case with Greece: the Germans had worked themselves into a position where no meaningful negotiation with Syriza was possible and so none occurred: not on fiscal easing, not on taxation, not on pension reform, not on privatization and not on debt restructuring. Preventing political contagion while keeping Greece in the Eurozone were considered national security matters. When the IMF admitted that Greek debt was unsustainable, the Germans paid no heed; when the French urged a deal at any cost, including a haircut, they were brushed aside. France was very pointedly and very publicly shown to be a junior partner, a humiliating position for the Fifth Republic, which always considered the European Union as a vehicle for extending French foreign and economic policy across the continent, not being scolded by les Bosches for fiscal imprudence.

This is not at all in Germany’s interests; and the consistent line of foreign policy emanating from Bonn and then Berlin has been that of ‘the good European’: demonstrating humility, self-negation, solidarity, the opposite of arrogant nationalism. For decades, it was almost a sin for one to be proud of being German. That is still an excellent policy: however benign German intentions are and however much Berlin is willing to sacrifice for Europe, there exists a visceral distrust and fear of the Teutonic giant from the Atlantic to the Urals. “Twice was enough” is engraved in the mind of every European, as well as every Russian, and the spectacle of an almost unilateralist Germany crushing a small country like Greece is sure to evoke Munich and the rape of Belgium in some minds. Angela Merkel knows she must avoid this at all costs if Germany is to have any hope of maintaining a stable European Union.