Volunteers for President Barack Obama's reelection campaign as they leave campaign headquarters. 2012, in Phoenix. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin.
Rising American Electorate was credited with helping Barack Obama win the presidency in 2008 and his reelection in 2012. Comprised of people of color, women, and young people, this Rising Electorate represents people in constituencies that have been underserved in a political system that increasingly caters to the needs of the wealthy. That the first African-American president received a high level of support among constituencies that have been historically underrepresented may suggest that he was elected by the power of “identity politics.” This narrative ignores the important economic forces driving the voting behavior of the new electorate. An excellent example of the economic forces behind the Rising Electorate’s voting behavior comes from recent Latino history. In the case of Latinos there are major differences in their economic conditions at the time when George W. Bush became president and later in the decade when Barack Obama was elected.
In 2004 John Kerry made history when he became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1980 to get less than 60 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls.* Kerry’s 19-point victory over George W. Bush tied the narrowest lead ever recorded for a Democrat and suggested that Latinos were finally starting to fulfill Ronald Reagan’s vision of Latinos as a natural conservative constituency. Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” was credited for expanding the Republican tent to include more Latinos in the conservative coalition and likely to end the Democrats’ lock of their support. The Party of Lincoln may have lost the African American vote, but now it was betting on the future: Latinos were in pace to become the largest ethnic minority in the country. Then, 2008 happened.
