On 1 November The Wall Street Journal reported on a Saudi intelligence assessment that Iran was preparing for a military attack. The motive, according to the assessment, was partly to divert attention from the widespread protests across Iran, some of the most intense and long-lasting in years.
The US and some Gulf states raised their military alert levels, but nothing came of the Saudi concern. However, it does raise the question of whether there is an increasing risk of a confrontation, stemming from the complex interrelationships in the region in the context of parallel political developments.
For example, in Washington, the Biden administration is still attempting to restore the nuclear deal with Iran that was ditched by Donald Trump four years ago, while Iran has been developing its missile capabilities and supplying Russia with armed drones. And Israel has elected a far-right Parliament that includes religious fundamentalists, who will have an influence on Israeli politics that has not been seen in decades.
