There is some evidence that the pretext for the Second Chechen War – the bombing of apartments in several cities across Russia – was engineered by the FSB, the successor of KGB, which was led by Putin shortly before he took office. In any case, there’s a familiar pattern: come up with a pretext for a conflict that the Kremlin believes is winnable, get a ‘small victorious war’ that can be broadcasted to the domestic audience and reap the political benefits.
To understand how Russia was planning to utilise the current war, one has to consider an ideal scenario for Russia. The war was perceived as an easy win: Russia planned to occupy the majority of Ukraine in three days, capture Kyiv, and install a puppet government. On top of that, Russian forces could continue the occupation of Belarus.
This would have led to complete Russian dominance in the region. Russia would be in a position to redesign the security landscape of Europe and gain nearly full control over key former Soviet republics. This would mean the Kremlin’s so-called ‘spheres of influence’ would be realised without any real risk of challenge.
A Russian victory in Ukraine would also make the legitimation of Putin’s successor in office easier, giving the regime an ideological backbone, which it has lacked. For years, the Kremlin has emphasised its victory in the Second World War, the importance of strong leadership, and Putin’s irreplaceability. A Russian victory would allow it to reconcile these disparate themes and contribute to what infamous presidential adviser Vladislav Surkov called “the long state of Putin”.
This outcome would also consolidate popular support for the Kremlin’s actions and eliminate the competition between the different elite parties through a uniting agenda. These preconditions would enable the successful transfer of power. Failing that, Putin’s departure would create a vacuum where ideas, interests and state strategies could become uncontrollable. War, on the other hand, provides an opportunity for the state apparatus to have direct control over the flow of ideas, the economy and the political processes of the state.
Another way to think about the transition of power in Russia is to consider the spending priorities of the Russian state prior to the war. Putin’s regime has been unable to raise the living standards of Russians, with the corrupt nature of the Russian economy making liberalisation unlikely, even before the costs of invasion were incurred. On the other hand, military spending has increased over several years, making it a perfect candidate to facilitate the transition of power in Russia. A victory would award the Kremlin and Putin’s chosen successor popular support all while avoiding excessive spending on welfare.
War – and a perceived sense of victory – would enable the Kremlin to create preconditions that would ensure the continuity of the Russian state after Putin both among ordinary Russians and the elites.
Instead, Russia has found itself in unfamiliar territory and facing a more complex future power transition. If the Kremlin believed that transition would be difficult for a country with a status quo, it will soon learn that it is far more difficult for a country that cannot win a war.