The response in Europe to the Russian aggression in Ukraine primarily rests on sanctions. Some unprecedented decisions have been made to supply arms, possibly including fighter jets, to Ukraine. As other military assistance is apparently unlikely, public discourse abounds with demands of ever harder sanctions to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine and to deter Russia from further aggression. The hope is to make sanctions so painful that Vladimir Putin’s regime will lose its grip on power. The Western or even worldwide response may also set a highly important precedent, particularly with regard to China and its unresolved claims on Taiwan. If no decisive and genuinely painful action is taken now, then China may feel emboldened and soon follow Russia’s example.
On the other side of the fence are two arguments. One is about economic and political self-interest. Germany, Italy, Hungary and other European states are critically dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Even Poland finds itself in a position of dependence on Russian coal. Despite best efforts – which are currently underway – it is not possible to swiftly overturn these dependencies, which have built up over time. Under various scenarios and maximal investments in alternative suppliers, it appears that far from all of Europe’s demand for industrial production and heating cannot be replaceable over the coming year. In any case, the dramatic surge in energy prices and inflation across the West, even prior to the Russian invasion, is a severe political problem for many leaders.
However, aside from the interests of the rich countries, we must recognise the effect on states that depend on remittances from Russia or even basic supplies of food. Lebanon, for instance, where there is already a severe humanitarian crisis, is dependent on wheat from both Ukraine and Russia.
