On 1 July, Russia finished voting on its constitutional referendum. This plebiscite will see, among other things, Vladimir Putin able to rule until 2036 through a constitutional change that will nullify the number of terms the president has served.
One result of the campaign is already clear, and it concerns public opinion polls. Surveys traditionally play a key role in Russian politics: they are effectively “daily plebiscites”, as polling industry founder George Gallup christened them. If not every day, then at least every week, opinion polls demonstrate the level of support enjoyed by president Putin and his policies, guaranteeing him legitimacy in return. After all, if these surveys do actually reflect the public mood and an overwhelming majority do support the Russian president, then there is no alternative to Putin, and his opponents are left demoralised.
Whether the polls reflect the will of the Russian people is another question, and an interesting one. It’s more accurate to say that opinion surveys manufacture public opinion. But what can be done if even “managed polling numbers” don’t contribute to the president’s legitimacy, but undermine it? When the political situation changes, opinion pollsters suddenly find themselves under enormous political pressure.
