Only three days into his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s war plan was faltering. The main intention, to take capital city Kyiv within 48 hours, depended on minimal military opposition and even some support from a welcoming public. Both would also ease Kremlin’s second aim: consolidating control of Crimea and Donbas.
The extent of the Russian president’s anger at the multiple failures of military organisation was shown on 27 February, via his warning to NATO of a nuclear response to any direct interference.
Already, by that point, Putin faced the prospect of a possible defeat in Ukraine, which would very likely end both his 22-year rule and his attempt to make Russia great again. Because of that, during the following week, Russia’s plan shifted to counter-city attacks and increasing loss of civilian lives – aimed at forcing a change of Ukraine’s government. This echoed military operations practised in Chechnya in the late 1990s and in Aleppo in Syria more recently. In parallel with this, Putin sought to continue with the push to gain a Russia-controlled corridor linking Donbas and Crimea.
